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Todays MLB betting slate features a full 15 games to dive into, which is always fun and gives us ample MLB player props to research. For this article, we will be focusing on non-home run player props, so if you are looking for Dinger Tuesday predictions please check out our article here.

Play 1: Chris Sale over 7.5 Strikeouts (-101) Caesars

Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves, 7:20 p.m. ET

Eight strikeouts is a lot, but it is a lot for good reason when digging into the pitcher and the matchup. Sale is having a resurgent season, posting his best strikeout rate (32.4%) since 2019 when he was a member of the Red Sox. Anything above 30% is an elite number, and for this year he is one of only seven pitchers with a K rate 30% or higher. Sale's 32.4% is the fourth-best of all qualified pitchers as well.

He has the fifth-best swinging strike rate in MLB at 14.4% and the second-best called strike + whiff rate at 32.8%. He is an elite strikeout pitcher by essentially any metric you look at, while having an excellent matchup against a Reds team that strikes out a ton against left-handed pitching.

Over the last 30 days the Reds have the third-highest team strikeout rate against lefties, with a K rate of 27.5%. They are one of only four teams that have an "awful" team strikeout rate, which FanGraphs defines as anything 27.5% or higher. Sale missed this number in his first five starts, but since then he has gone over 7.5 in 10 of 13 starts, and after missing it last start with only four Ks, today is the perfect time to buy in on his strikeout prop.

Play 2: Bryan Reynolds over 1.5 Bases (+115) Bet365

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, 6:40 p.m. ET

While Lance Lynn is not having nearly as bad of a season this year as he had last year, he is still having a bad year overall and a pitcher that you want to target for bases props. Reynolds is a good bet today to ladder his bases up to 4+ as well, so if he hits a home run he would climb the full ladder for us, but a double would at least cash the 2+ bases.

Reynolds is having a good year overall for the Pirates, batting .288 with a .486 slugging, .362 wOBA and a .838 OPS. Those numbers will not put him among the tops in MLB, but above average across the board. He is also better against RHP, with the biggest difference being his power splits, as his average is .288 against both RHP and LHP, but his ISO rate jumps from .160 against LHP to .216 against RHP.

Lynn, meanwhile, is a right-handed pitcher who is known to throw meatballs and give up solid contact. He allows a barrel rate of 10.2% (fourth-highest in MLB), and his hard hit rate of 40.3% and average exit velocity of 89.3MPH are also bottom-30 of all qualified pitchers. Reynolds is a switch-hitter, so since Lynn is a righty Reynolds will be batting lefty, and Lynn is significantly worse across the board against LHH. This is a matchup that is an extreme advantage in favor of the batter in Reynolds, so here's hoping he comes through for us.

Play 3: Logan Gilbert over 18.5 Outs (+143) Caesars

Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET

Gilbert is having a fantastic year, and getting him to pitch into the seventh inning is a great value bet to make. The beauty of backing Gilbert is that he is the type of pitcher who is trusted to pitch deep into games and rack up a decently high pitch count. He has gone over 18.5 in 13 of 20 starts this season, so right of the bat getting a play that has a 65% hit rate for +money, let alone for +143 screams value.

Gilbert allows the fourth-lowest batting average against at .190, tied with Hunter Greene, while also allowing the ninth-lowest walk rate in the MLB. Those two stats put together makes it clear how Gilbert has been able to pitch so deep into games, as it is because he does not allow a lot of base runners. That, coupled with the fact that he averages over 90 pitchers per start and has hit triple digit pitches three times.

Looking at the Angels, they are a below-average lineup that is nothing to be scared of. Over the last 30 days against right-handed pitching they have the 12th-lowest wRC+, with the 11th-lowest batting average as well. Gilbert had a start against the Angels earlier this month and pitched seven full innings while only allowing two hits and walking none, and his last start against the Angels in 2023 he also went a full seven innings.

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Uncommon Knowledge

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

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